News & Analysis

Live inflation news, sourced — not rewritten.

A live news feed streamed straight from TradingView's economic-coverage timeline, plus direct links to every primary source you'd want to read in full: the BLS release page, the Federal Reserve, FRED, and the BEA. Background context below explains how to read whatever the latest headlines are saying.

Live Feed

Top stories — U.S. economic coverage

Streamed live from TradingView's news desk. Headlines update continuously throughout the trading day; CPI release days typically dominate the top of the feed at and after 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

Next release →

TradingView Top Stories · U.S.

Updates continuously
Primary sources

Read the original release, not a rewrite

Every figure you'll see in inflation news traces back to one of these official sources. We link directly so you can verify any number against its issuer.

Source · BLS

U.S. CPI release page

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' main Consumer Price Index page. Hosts the latest release, complete archive of past releases, detailed tables, technical documentation, and the upcoming release schedule a year in advance.

bls.gov/cpi →
Source · BLS

CPI news release archive

Every monthly BLS CPI news release, going back decades. The 8:30 a.m. ET PDF and HTML versions land here at release time. The press release leads with headline year-over-year and month-over-month, then walks through major component movements.

News release archive →
Source · Federal Reserve

FOMC statements & minutes

The official Federal Open Market Committee record. Statements are released at the conclusion of each meeting; minutes follow three weeks later. The quarterly Summary of Economic Projections includes the dot plot and central-tendency inflation forecasts.

FOMC calendar →
Source · FRED

Federal Reserve Economic Data

The St. Louis Fed's data repository. Every CPI series, sub-component, and historical vintage is downloadable, graphable, and API-accessible. The single best place to pull raw inflation data for any kind of analysis.

fred.stlouisfed.org →
Source · BEA

PCE price index

The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — is published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. PCE typically releases two to three weeks after the corresponding CPI, with broader scope and substitution-adjusted weighting.

bea.gov →
Source · Cleveland Fed

Inflation Nowcasting

The Cleveland Fed maintains a model-based real-time forecast of CPI and PCE inflation that blends high-frequency data with structural relationships. One of the most accurate publicly available short-horizon inflation forecasts.

Inflation Nowcasting →
Background

How to read a CPI release

The release drops at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on the BLS schedule. Headlines hit within seconds. Here's how to interpret what you're reading.

What the press release actually says

The BLS press release leads with two numbers: the seasonally adjusted month-over-month change in headline CPI and the year-over-year change. Both are stated for the latest reference month, which is always the prior calendar month. Below the headline, the release breaks down the change into food, energy, and "all items less food and energy" (core), then walks through major component movements with brief commentary.

Two figures matter most for the immediate reaction:

  • Headline YoY — what the press cites. This drives the political narrative and household-perception coverage.
  • Core MoM — what the Fed and bond market actually trade off. A 0.1 percentage-point surprise versus consensus moves the 2-year Treasury yield meaningfully.

If a release has shelter as a big mover, that's worth a second look. Shelter is about 35 percent of the basket and is methodologically smoothed, so any sustained turn in shelter contributes substantively to the year-over-year picture for months.

What to ignore

One-month moves in volatile categories — used cars, lodging away from home, airline fares — generate noisy headlines that often reverse in subsequent prints. Single readings in these categories rarely change the underlying inflation story; persistent two- or three-month trends do.

"Supercore" services — core services excluding shelter — gets a lot of attention, and rightly so. But the supercore measure is itself volatile month to month. A three-month moving average is the standard smoothing approach, and judging supercore by a single print is a recipe for whiplash.

What the Fed actually targets

The FOMC's 2% inflation target is defined on the PCE price index, not CPI. The two move closely but not identically; core PCE typically runs 0.2 to 0.4 percentage points below core CPI on average because of differences in weighting, scope, and substitution methodology. See our CPI vs PPI vs PCE comparison for the full breakdown.

Even though PCE is the formal target, CPI typically gets more market attention because it releases earlier, has more granular sub-components, and feeds directly into TIPS and CPI-W (Social Security COLA) calculations. The Fed itself discusses CPI in its public communications, and Fed officials often cite specific CPI sub-aggregates.

Themes in current coverage

What's been driving the inflation story

The structural themes that have dominated U.S. inflation coverage through the current normalization cycle. Each links to deeper background on this site.

Shelter

The shelter lag, in reverse

For two years through 2023, BLS shelter ran far hotter than private rent indexes — the price of measuring rents through tenants mid-lease rather than new signings. As market rents cooled, the same methodology meant shelter CPI took 12+ months to catch down. By 2025 the shelter index had largely converged with private measures, removing what had been a persistent tailwind to core CPI.

CPI housing & shelter →
Services

Supercore services normalization

Core services excluding shelter — the "supercore" — was the Fed's central focus through 2023–2024 because it's the closest read on wage-driven inflation. As the labor market cooled and wage growth slowed toward 4%, supercore decelerated, contributing more to the disinflation narrative than headline.

Core CPI deep dive →
Auto insurance

The insurance cycle peaks

Motor vehicle insurance ran above 20% year-over-year for an unusual stretch in 2023–2024, reflecting the lagged pass-through of higher vehicle prices, repair costs, and medical claim costs through state rate-filing approvals. The cycle peaked and is rolling over as the underlying drivers stabilize.

CPI transportation →
Energy

Crude as a swing factor

Energy CPI is the most volatile component and the single biggest source of headline-versus-core divergence in any given quarter. Crude-oil moves typically reach the gasoline pump within four to six weeks, and recent geopolitical episodes have repeatedly pulled energy prices in one direction or the other.

CPI energy →
Goods

Goods deflation, on and off

Core goods inflation went deeply negative in 2024 as supply chains normalized and the dollar firmed. Whether that disinflation persists or reverses depends on tariff policy, the dollar, and the trajectory of used-vehicle prices — three forces that don't always pull in the same direction.

All CPI categories →
Methodology

The 2023 reweighting and what changed

Starting in 2023, BLS shifted from biennial to annual reweighting of CPI components. The change reduces the lag between actual consumer spending patterns and the CPI basket, but it also makes year-over-year comparisons slightly harder because the weights aren't fixed across the comparison period.

U.S. CPI methodology →
Editorial approach

What this page is and isn't

This page is a news aggregation and reference index, not an editorial publication that produces original release-day analysis. Three principles:

  • The live feed is sourced, not rewritten. Headlines come from TradingView's news partners. Click through to read the original — we don't paraphrase or summarize.
  • Primary-source links are first-class. When you want the actual number, the BLS release link is right there. No interpretation between you and the data.
  • Background context is dated where it matters. Static framing sections on this page reflect the structural inflation story rather than any single recent print, and they're reviewed regularly. The themes section above describes ongoing dynamics, not breaking news.

For specific data points and figures, every chart on the site streams live from TradingView's economic feed routed through FRED and other official sources. That's the path to "current" — verifiable, sourceable, and continuously updated. Anything I'd write here in static text would be stale by the next print.

If you want the fastest single-source view of new CPI data: bookmark the BLS press release page. It updates at 8:30 a.m. ET on release days.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Where does the news on this page come from?

The live news feed is the TradingView Top Stories widget filtered to U.S. economic coverage. Primary-source links go to the BLS, the Federal Reserve, FRED, and the BEA. None of this is rewritten on cpichart.com — every link sends you to the original source.

How often does the news update?

The live feed updates continuously as new stories are published. The static context sections on this page are reviewed and updated regularly, particularly around BLS release dates.

Where can I read the actual BLS CPI release?

Every monthly CPI release is published at bls.gov/cpi. The full press release, detailed tables, archive of past releases, and the upcoming release schedule are all linked from that page.

Where can I see the Federal Reserve's reaction to CPI?

FOMC statements, meeting minutes, and the Summary of Economic Projections are published at federalreserve.gov. The Fed's quarterly SEP includes projections for PCE inflation, growth, unemployment, and the federal funds rate.

Do you cover anything besides U.S. CPI?

Yes. Eurozone HICP, UK CPI, Japan CPI, and other major-economy inflation prints are surfaced when they're particularly newsworthy. See the global CPI dashboard for live cross-country data.

Is anything on this page investment advice?

No. cpichart.com is informational only. Nothing on this page — including any framing of how the Fed might react to data — constitutes investment advice. See the disclaimer.